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Radar #15: Week of 12/29/2025

Graham Helton

The Low Orbit Security Radar is a weekly security newsletter from an offensive practitioner's perspective. One idea, curated news, and links worth your time.

Idea: The Window Is Broken


Though the MongoBleed vulnerability (explained below) caused quite a stir because a POC was released on Christmas Day, the most interesting part of the MongoBleed story is actually not the vulnerability or the timing of the POC being released: The most interesting part was an offhanded tweet by the POC author about how the POC was created.

This could be a case study in speed running from patch to poc with LLM. Done in less than 10 minutes with cursor and a single prompt. Helped that vuln trigger is included as unit test in the fix commit
The prompt used to create the POC.


Taking the author at their word, and given the patched code (which included a unit test for the fix), Cursor (the actual model was not listed) was able to generate a proof of concept in under 10 minutes. While this won't always lead to accurate results, especially for more complex vulnerabilities (See: react2shell's invalid POCs), a well thought out system can autonomously toil away indefinitely.

The description of a vulnerability is more than enough to send an LLM down a path to creating a POC. When the software is open source, it is trivial to compare the new, patched code to the old, unpatched code.

There has always been a window of time between a vulnerability being disclosed (typically by means of a CVE being published) and a public POC being available. This window of time has historically advantaged defenders, who had long lead times to triage information and patch before crafty individuals are able to reverse engineer the patch and get a working exploit.

It's impossible to get perfect data on this, but the little data we do have from sources like Mandiant/Google Threat Intel reports shows the window is shrinking so rapidly I'm not sure it even exists anymore. If the data is accurate, on average, attackers are now exploiting vulnerabilities before patches exist.

Year Time-to-Exploit Source
2018-2019 63 days Time-to-Exploit Trends: 2021-2022
2020-2021 44 days Time-to-Exploit Trends: 2021-2022
2021-2022 32 days Time-to-Exploit Trends: 2021-2022
2023 5 days Time-to-Exploit Trends 2023
2024 -1 days Mandiant/GTIG Report*

*2024 report available to Google Threat Intelligence subscribers. I was not able to access this report myself.

If that isn't concerning enough, I'm confident there are large, well funded threat actors for whom compute is near infinite who are continuously ingesting every open source project, and automatically feeding it to a system that diffs every commit, identifies suspicious code that could lead to a vulnerability, generates candidate exploits, and validates them against ephemeral test environments (such as a docker container), before the CVE is even published.

AI tooling won't get it right most times, but a well architected workflow that automatically scans every code push to an open source repository the moment it's published is feasible today. If you're not picky about your target and you have enough compute, even a 0.01% success rate is highly valuable.

The window hasn't just reached zero, it is possibly negative for well resourced threat actors. Happy holidays...

News


MongoBleed dropped on Christmas: here is what you need to know

CVE-2025-14847 is a CVSS 7.5 (or CVSS 8.7 using the CVSS 4 scoring) vulnerability in MongoDB Server that allows unauthenticated remote attackers who can reach port 27017 (by default) to leak data from database memory. This was disclosed on December 19th, 2025 with a POC being dropped on Christmas by a Tech Lead at Elastic.

As with most memory related vulnerabilities, this isn't a panacea for attackers, there is some non-trivial element to leaking memory in a usable way.

Validation of the MongoBleed POC

Here is a quick reference table for the MongoBleed vulnerability.

Category Details
CVE CVE-2025-14847
Name MongoBleed
CVSS Score CVSS 3: 7.5 (High) CVSS 4: 8.7 (High)
Disclosure Date December 19, 2025
PoC Released December 25, 2025
Attack Vector Network (unauthenticated)
Root Cause zlib decompression returns allocated buffer size instead of actual decompressed data length
Impact Memory disclosure
Internet Exposure 87,000+ vulnerable instances (Censys), 200,000+ total MongoDB footprint
Affected Versions 8.2.x < 8.2.3, 8.0.x < 8.0.17, 7.0.x < 7.0.28, 6.0.x < 6.0.27, 5.0.x < 5.0.32, 4.4.x < 4.4.30, all 4.2/4.0/3.6 (no patch)
Fixed Versions 8.2.3, 8.0.17, 7.0.28, 6.0.27, 5.0.32, 4.4.30
Detection Signal High connection velocity (100k+/min) with zero client metadata events

There are plenty of great resources on the topic you should explore if you need more information.

Caught My Eye

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